Based on the EU votes from across Sussex, Surrey and Kent yesterday, it is clear that there is a very strong argument for a second referendum and a revocation of Article 50. The combined Green and Lib Dem votes vs the combined UKIP and Brexit votes are 4% in favour of Brexit. However if the ChangeUK votes are added to the mix the two groups of votes are equal. This then leaves the Labour and Tory votes which were 44% in 2014 down to 17% in the last week and where their voters want to go is far from clear.
Breaking down the three areas in the region it is clear across Sussex that UKIP and Brexit match Lib Dem and Green at 39% each without adding Change UK and in Surrey the Lib Dem and Green votes are at 43% and the Brexit and UKIP at 36%. Kent is the only area where the Brexit and UKIP votes exceed the Lib Dem and Greens with a large difference of 47% to 31%. However even here the increase in votes when compared to 2014 put the Greens and Lib Dems at 18% higher compared to UKIP and Brexit only 8% higher. In Kent the two areas which are at odds with the rest are Canterbury and Tunbridge Wells. In both of these locations the pro EU votes are clearly higher than the pro Brexit votes.
Here in Brighton and Hove the UKIP and Brexit votes were relatively modest and indeed in West Sussex with the exception of Arun and Crawley all of the other five Council areas were heavily focused on Lib Dem and Green rather than Brexit and UKIP. East Sussex was more in favour of the Departure votes but this was primarily in Rother followed by Wealden and Eastbourne. Lewes and Hastings were in favour of Remain.