As we enter the closing hours of 2019 and are about to enter the first 31 days of 2020 we have been promised that by the end of the 31st of January our nation will have left the EU and indeed Mr Johnson has demanded that Whitehall will stop referring to the phrase of Brexit from then on. It seems very reasonable therefore for that same person to deliver on these claims that were the beginning of his party manifesto just over two months ago. So come the 1st February 2020 we can look forward to:
The starting point as far as the promises were concerned is that the political deadlock and division will be over. One could argue that the impact of the Conservative majority means that just like in settings such as West Sussex County Council and Wealden District Council, that the impact of division and deadlock is never going to occur again? However in both of those settings along with all other sizeable majority settings, there may be less deadlock but there is no end to division and so this will be an interesting thing for Johnson to achieve by the end of January!
The confidence and certainty for families and businesses is perhaps a bit more of a challenge so the fact that this is the second priority is something that is understandable given that Johnson and his party have so far spent very little time engaging with businesses since June 2016 and absolutely no time engaging with families apart from the businesses and families that invest their wealth in his ideas. Clearly his time spent with the Von Bismarck family over the last couple of days and until he returns from Mustique may satisfy his claim but it won’t satisfy our nation. As for businesses such as Cobham, whilst the Advent investors will be happy with his permission for them to take over Cobham, it sends an interesting sign out to the rest of the business sector in the UK. As Sir John Sawers stated at a recent conference “we need to be able to say for firms like Cobham, actually we want to keep this technology in the UK”.
So if promise one is achievable at least in a superficial sense and two impossible, it would appear through the Advent approach that Brexit was not needed but actually we may find that the Advent approach is a mere drop in the ocean to the tidal wave that is due to begin on 1st February. What may be less appealing is the impact on business founders like Cobham and their employees, as opposed to the shareholders when the wave does begin to encroach our nation.
We know that the NHS will be impacted post Brexit, and it depends on whose story one listens to as to what the impact will have. The idea that our cost of living will be tackled is an interesting claim. Is it that we will have it reduced or is the phrase misleading. Certainly most of the analysis is that our cost of living will raise as we leave the EU. However it is unlikely that this will become clear on 1st February. However in due course we will certainly find out!