Lynton is not Dave’s real problem


The race is on. On Thursday Parliament broke up for its Summer Hols, all the prefects took off their badges and the painters and decorators can finally begin to paint the areas which are kept busy during term time. The changing rooms will get a clean and the library books can be counted. The hansard stenographers have packed up their keyboards and everyone including the head boy is planning their holidays. Presumably the relaxed David Cameron who we saw being interviewed by Andrew Marr yesterday is relying on the press also going away so that the story about Lynton Crosby and cigarettes turns to ash.

I have never smoked, and my own children are the same, plain packaging is not a matter that personally impacts on me. However due to the cost of smoking related illnesses for the nation, I fully support the change being proposed if it could possibly reduce illness and expense for future generations. I think it will be an act of madness if the Coalition don’t follow through on this reform, just as I think it is foolishness for them to continue to resist the minimum pricing of alcohol as I recently blogged. What I find strange in the debate about what Dave and Lynton have discussed, is that we seem to be focussing on the wrong problem. On Sunday Dave calmly explained that the decision about plain packaging was taken by him sitting in his Kitchen, that the decision to adopt plain packaging had not yet been taken, not that he has taken a decision not to adopt it. He insisted that the Australian PR guru had never influenced him or lobbied him but refused to be drawn on the issue of whether the two men had discussed the matter.

If we assume that our nation is going to implement plain packaging for cigarettes, then for Dave to avoid discussing this issue with Crosby would be plain stupid. After all Crosby is an Australian where the current experiment is taking place, and Crosby is well-connected with the Industry that will be affected by this change. What is surprising is that Cameron claims he is taking this decision alone, and he has used the imagery of his own kitchen in the story. What is the point of paying Anna Soubrey to be the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Health and explain to the Commons what the Government plan to do if the person who really decides these things, is the PM. The concept of a kitchen cabinet is meant to imply a group of people who make the decisions out of the gaze of the real Cabinet. It is not meant to mean that the Prime Minister makes decisions on their own with only the kitchen cabinet, sink and Aga to keep him company.

This decision is clearly a significant one. It has an impact on the Treasury if the end result will be a reduction in smoking (and tax income), so George Osborne and Danny Alexander need to be involved. It could impact on Jobs and Industrial Output so Vince Cable needs to be part of the decision. Then there are the Health Impacts so Jeremy Hunt and Anna Soubrey need to be part of the discussion and decision. If in the midst of this one or two of the Conservative Ministers had a discussion with someone who is working for them who is Australian and also works for the Tobacco Industry that is not unreasonable. However this collective Cabinet level discussion and decision is not what Dave described to Andrew Marr. Tony Blair was famous for his Sofa Government when he and one or two others made decisions outside the Cabinet Office. If we have moved from three people on a Sofa to one person in their kitchen, we are in very vulnerable territory.

It is in Dave’s kitchen in the late hours of the night that the laughter of Nigel Farage must begin to haunt David Cameron. Here is a man who might win one or two seats in 2015 but could reduce the majority for a number of Conservative MPs. If the Prime Minister acts in a way that will stifle criticism from Nigel Farage, we really do have a case of voted Conservative, got Farage.

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About ianchisnall

I am passionate about the need for public policies to be made accessible to everyone, especially those who want to improve the wellbeing of their communities. I am particularly interested in issues related to crime and policing as well as health services and strategic planning.
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