Yesterday two high profile political idiots tweeted one of their shared views and sadly along with their tweets there was also a publication by the Daily Telegraph of an article by one of these offensive people. The tweets and retweets are above along with the latest graph showing the latest number of COVID-19 cases in the UK on a daily basis. On the left hand side of the graph is the indication of around 1000 cases a day which had been reached by the 23rd March when Toby Young and Daniel Hannan’s mate, Boris Johnson felt he had not option but to call for a lockdown of our nation. The same level of daily cases is happening now to what was happening on 23rd March and so suggesting that “The virus has all but disappeared” is about as credible as suggesting that people who are studying the challenge of COVID-19 from a public health or epidemiologist point of view are stamping their feet because the COVID-19 has reduced significantly. It may of course be more reasonable for Toby Young and Daniel Hannan who themselves have in the past been working as local bureaucrats to feel able to criticise other people who are bureaucrats as they know how they have behaved in the past. That said many of the local bureaucrats I have contact with are actually delighted that the daily death numbers are much lower than they were in the past. However their concern is that the numbers are over a hundred on most days and in some cases reach 300 or more. Given our nation was told that we may have only 20,000 COVID-19 deaths that any more than a double number each day and particularly treble numbers is very disturbing. This helps to explain why we have had 60,000 deaths so far.
No one can be sure about the future and it is certainly worth hoping for a lack of a second peak of the COVID-19 conditions. However such hoping is based on aspiration rather than any evidence. On the other hand as Wednesday’s Metro explained:
Health leaders warn there is ‘real risk’ a second wave of coronavirus and are calling for an urgent review to make sure the UK is ready for it. Ministers have been warned that decisive action is needed to prevent further loss of life and to protect the economy amid growing fears of a renewed outbreak over the winter. It comes after Boris Johnson announced yesterday the biggest lockdown easing to date in England, claiming the Government does ‘not believe there is currently a risk of a second peak of infections that might overwhelm the NHS’…. In an open letter to the leaders of all the UK political parties published in the British Medical Journal, a number of health leaders call for a ‘rapid and forward-looking assessment’ of the state of national preparedness in the event of a renewed flare-up.
Now of course there is no reason to assume that the Metro is accurate, but I would certainly treat their piece more seriously than the piece in the Telegraph that was written by Toby Young and promoted by his Telegraph colleague Daniel Hannan and no doubt enjoyed by the Prime Minister who in the last three days has managed to open the door to a range of seafront settings which have seen a number of massive challenges and even some deaths. That said the deaths were not related to COVID-19 but the massive run to the beaches is something that Young and Hannan could perhaps challenge their chum Johnson about if they were minded to do so.